Ahead of the vote on tuition fees

So on Thursday 9th, we have the House of Commons vote on Higher Education, which is now focused more than anything else on whether to increase tuition fees or not.

I think it's unlikely that Greg Mulholland's attempt to have the vote on tuition fees delayed will be successful, and this will leave Lib Dems with a choice. They can support the rise in tuition fees, they can oppose rise, or they can abstain.

The numbers suggest that the motion need not be passed, if enough Lib Dems vote against. Contrary to what has been said by Paddy Ashdown and others in the media, tuition fees was flagged up as an issue by the Liberal Democrat special conference in May 2010 - which I attended - where conference passed this motion, submitted by Liberal Youth:

"Conference notes that many Liberal Democrat MPs signed the NUS ‘vote for students’ pledge against any real-terms rise in the tuition fee cap. Conference calls upon Liberal Democrat ministers and MPs to ensure that on any decision made on Lord Browne’s report on higher education funding, they above all else take into account the impact on student debt. Conference affirms the Liberal Democrat objective of scrapping tuition fees."

This issue is more than simply about tuition fees; it's about trust and about restoring trust in politics. All of the Lib Dem MPs, plus 92 Labour MPs and 3 Tory MPs signed the NUS pledge (see Matt King's blog for full details). These MPs went further than simply making a manifesto commitment, to personally pledge to vote against any rise in tuition fees. No ifs, no buts.

It seems pretty clear that those 92 Labour MPs will stick to their pledge, and media interest is - quite rightly - on whether the Liberal Democrats will stick to their individual promises; or whether they are just like any other party, saying one thing in opposition, and doing quite another in government.

As a Liberal Democrat activist, I can safely say - wait - pledge, that I will not support or campaign for any MP who does not vote against the rise in tuition fees. Further to this, I will push for the de-selection of Lib Dem MPs if they vote for the rise in tuition fees, and would consider campaigning against them if they chose to stand in future elections as Liberal Democrats.

We are a party that hold honesty and transparency in the highest regard, and when our MPs make a pledge, they should damn well stick to it. If they don't then they're certainly not sitting in parliament in my name.

Tuition Fees Protests

So today saw 50,000 students marching through the streets of London at the proposed rise in tuition fees to £6,000 and £9,000. If you were to switch on the news, you'd probably get the impression that this was a mob of rabid students tearing through the capital destroying everything in sight, but thankfully it looks like the majority of the protest was carried out peacefully. The Police sensibly showing restrain for once, but probably underestimating the number of officers needed.

Protesters outside Conservative Party HQ - AP

The breaking into Tory HQ wasn't good, but I was surprised how quickly Aaron Porter (NUS President) and others condemned it. Well not so much surprised - I mean their number one concern is their own reputation, it would seem - but if there had been no word from NUS straight away about the violence, I can't help but feel it would have sent a stronger message to the government. Perhaps a feeling of "crap... this is only going to get worse..." Instead, the 'anarchists' and 'Trotskyites' have been blamed and NUS shuffles off into the corner looking embarrassed at a peaceful protest gone wrong.

I'm certainly no fan of violence and it's a big shame that those on both sides were injured (3 police and 6 protesters, is the latest), but it had happened, and surely it's better to play that to your advantage to shock the government and to get a message across? The breaking of a few windows and desks are a tiny dent in the pocket of the Conservative Party in comparison to the damage of saddling a whole generation of new students with millions of pounds of debt every year...

Gaza Crisis

I have been closely following the situation in Palestine since the end of the ceasefire on Boxing Day.

The force used by Israel has, in my opinion been completely disproportionate to the threat. They have killed over 600 innocent and defenceless Palestinian civilians, compared to the 9 Israelis killed. The bombing of UN-run schools sheltering refugees, and of other civilian targets including Mosques in unacceptable.

Today, the Red Cross (Red Crescent in Palestine) have accused Israel of failing to fulfil its obligation to help wounded civilians in Gaza. Pierre Wettach - head of the ICRC in Israel & Palestine claimed Israel's military "must have been aware of the situation but did not assist the wounded - neither did they make it possible for us or the Palestinian Red Crescent to assist the wounded." According to the BBC "One medical team found 12 bodies in a shelled house, and alongside them four very young children, too weak to stand, waiting by their dead mothers."

Someone I know is out in Gaza helping medics deal with the situation. Yesterday, one of the medics she had been working with was shot by an Israeli sniper and is now in hospital. Her blog can be found here.

I really hope the Franco-Egyptian Ceasefire Proposal can be accepted quickly and we can get back to finding the solution for everlasting peace in the region, which Israel and Hamas seem so intent on evading.

The 11th Doctor?

Could this be the first glimpse of the 11th Doctor on Doctor Who??
Me thinks that would be too obvious :P

David Tennant as the Doctor - Possible Regeneration

Billy Boyd as Pippin

Billy Boyd (who plays Pippin in the Lord of the Rings Trilogy) wrote the melody which he sings as Pippin for the king in Minas Tirith in the Return of the King.

And then here he is singing a cover verion of Hit Me Baby One More Time.

And to think his career is acting!

1 in 10 think Tory's have had it!

An ICM poll for the guardian in december found that 12% of people asked thought that the Conservatives may never be returned to power.

The question asked was "When do you think the Conservatives maybe returned to power?"
The majority suggested it would be in one of the next two elections, but 12% of the sample of 1006 (thats 121 people!)
Perhaps it was because they surveyed lots of left wing "tory-haters", or perhaps it was because favour is still moving against the Conservatives?

Next election: 37%
Not until two elections time: 30%
Not until 3 elections time or later: 7%
Will never return to power: 12%
Don't know 15%

You can see this pole and other polls from December 06 Here. Including the voting intentions poll, which shows the conservatives with a majority (40% to Labour's 32%.) So it looks like the world is going crazy... or just the country... or just the Tories... no, they were always crazy... no, I'm just joking!

Side-note:
Accorting to politicalbetting.com, Hilary Clinton is odds on to be the 2008 president of the USA (and obviously she is odds on to be the Democrat Candidate, and the Democrats are odds on to win...) However betters seem to have lost hold of their hats, and the odds for a female president are lower than for a non-female president. Either the betters believe Hilary Clinton to be a man, or they are betting like idiots.... I shall leave my reader(s) to contemplate the intelligence of the American population...

Sadam and the Capital Punishment Question

On the 30th of December, we heard that Sadam Hussein had been executed, however only a few days later we were presented with television pictures which showed the video of him directly before his execution. It doesn't take much to find the full YouTube version of the video, in which you can see him falling to his death, as well as footage looking down on him as he perished.

Surely this absolutely gruesome footage asks again the question on human rights and capital punishment. Even when the victim is a man who I hate and I know deserves to die, I sit and know that the removal of life like that isn't right. Surely our government, especially with their "expressed opinion" on the matter, cannot just allow a newly created democracy to listen to America when they tell them that killing is the only way to make things better?

Anyway, in the meantime while international laws do not prevent such hangings, we might as well celebrate his death by accepting that he deserved everything he got.

North Korea - 1 nuclear weapon?

It's believed that North Korea tested its Nuclear Weapons last week - which could turn them into a powerful country in the worldwide community. Looks like we'd better all jump inside our Fall Out shelters and say goodbye to the world we know doesn't it? Well first you have to look at the facts and guesses about other countries worldwide.

Recognised nuclear powers (who have signed Non-Proliferation Treaty):
Russia 8'232
USA have 7'068
China 402
France 348
UK 185
Iran (unsure)

Countries outside NPT suspected of weapons:
Israel +-200?
Pakistan +-40?
India +-35?
North Korea +-1?

And a bucket-full of other countries are capable of creating nuclear weapons using existing nuclear reactors (Canada, Mexico, Colombia, Peru, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Poland, Ukraine, Switzerland, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Italy, Spain, Turkey, Algeria, Egypt, Dem. Rep. of Congo, South Africa, Bangladesh, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Australia).

So we might not need to question the fact that North Korea has tested Nuclear weapons this month (according to US intelligence - i didn't know there was any) but when you look at the stats, is it hard to see that other countries world wide seem to pose a bigger threat?

If the US are behaving as they usually do, then they probably have all of their "battleships" sitting in some bay in South Korea, so if North Korea fire their Nuclear Weapon (singular) on the very important Alaska, then they won't exist for more than two seconds, before the other coutries in the world with nuclear weapons (USA, Russia, UK, France, Israel, China and India) respond. Iran is the only dangerous country, but only appears dangerous due to forceful American opinion.

So, in the wake of WW3, I shouldn't worry too much... the only real threat is George Bush.